The reason why the ANC has not chastised Malema

I've been slow in figuring this one out - but the reason why the ANC has not censored Malema is actually blatantly obvious...

I started by wondering whether the ANC was hoping that Malema might hang himself if given sufficient rope, but realised the situation was trickier than that.

The ANC and its alliance are divided on the issue of nationalisation. They can not afford to come out either in support of, or against, Malema. To do so would not only break up the fragile alliance with the SACP and COSATU and also divide the ANC along these ideological lines. Something the ANC can ill afford.

Malema has seen the gap and is very cleverly exploiting it...

The net result? South Africa is left with a clear leadership vacuum and the nation is in a quandary about its future. The bald truth is that the ruling party is too divided and scared to act - as any action would result in the ANC imploding.

Quo vadis... and... So-whe-tu?

I'm not really one to pontificate about the machinations of politicians, online or elsewhere, but the lack of mature leadership and clear thinking is so blatant that I find myself unable to keep my opinions to myself.

How can anyone, after encouraging people to sing a song with the lyrics "kill the boer" or "kill the farmer" stand back and say... I'm in Zimbabwe. I had nothing to do with the incident? Could someone have the moral fibre to stand up and take responsibility for their actions - please?

SOME people might see the song as a rallying anti-apartheid cry with a history, and not see it as condoning violence against white people... but surely anyone can see that some are going to take the rallying cry literally? Just as violence on TV breeds an acceptance of violence in life, chanting slogans like this breeds an attitude that opposes everything enshrined in the constitution.

I'm also gob-smacked at the lack of intelligence I'm credited for... Extreme right-winger Eugene Terreblanche is violently murdered in bed. Two people are arrested, admitting to having killed the controversial figure over a wage dispute. A wage dispute? Come on? I know we have a high rate of crime and violence - but since when is a wage dispute negotiated with pipes and pangas? Clearly the motive was murder, not clarifying a wage issue...

While this might not be a politically motivated murder, this does not mean that the attitude encouraged by the song does not play a big part in killing being seen as a solution to problems.

But - of graver concern to me is this:

Malema is openly stating that he will disregard the legal ruling preventing him from singing the song. This sends a message potentially more damaging than singing "kill the boer". If there is no regard for the rule of law or judicial process when it does not rule in your favour... then we are indeed on the top of a very slippery slope to mayhem.

I'm also astounded to learn that Malema is on a fact finding mission to Zimbabwe to study their highly controversial redistribution process. My first question is: IF nationalisation is not ANC policy in the medium to long term, why is Malema investing so much effort in this. This has gone way beyond healthy "debate".

My second question is: Didn't the land redistribution policy in Zimbabwe turn a thriving agruclutral-based economy on its head and result in more poverty and hardship for most people (except ZANU-PF cronies)? Hasn't it just recovered from a bout of hyperinflation that had the economy spiraling totally out of control? I sure hope Malema is in Zimbabwe learning how NOT to go about redistribution and not taking tips on how it should be done!

My observation is this: The ANC in as hell-bent on supporting their right to sing their rallying war song as they were on electing Zuma as president - they want their will to prevail, irrespective of how bad it might look to other people.

But, the lack of censorship of Malema is the biggest concern... and while the ANC still tries to sit undaintily on the fence between the left/ride commercial divide, it is clear that policy IS inevitably going to move to the left despite assurances to the contrary. They have lost control and are simply not going to be left with any other option.

I'm still not sure what they hope to gain out of this - either they are total fools (which I do not believe) or there is a clear policy to create fear and stoke racial tension... but I fail to see who might benefit from it? Perhaps if they can intimidate farmers into leaving out of fear it solves the willing buyer, willing seller problem - but I suspect the plan is bigger than that.

But either way, we are shifting away from a democracy to a place where might is right.

Is this how rainbows evaporate?

I follow the news in sub-Saharan Africa more closely than most - this is what I am paid to do as an analyst for the region. As a South African I am worried about recent developments in the country, and I know I am not alone.

My recent concern stems from the fact that the ANC Youth League has been allowed to make very controversial statements and threats which are ignored under the banner of it being their democratic right to "debate" these issues. I'm not sure how you debate a call from the nationalization of mines or threatening media freedom... but the league appears to be playing a very smart game ahead of the ANC (or perhaps on behalf of the ANC) in a bid to gain the unquestioning populist support from the poorer masses.

Nobody likes to be a doomsayer, or a pessimist - but my hope and optimism is fading as I see the shimmer in the rainbow start to do the same.

This is my personal take on things:

The ANC has always had the problem of being united AGAINST apartheid - with that unity of vision crumbling with the dissolution of the oppression. They are not united in their democratic (if it is a democratic) vision.

I was content in SA until the ANC ousted Mbeki. He wasn't a great president, but it showed that the ANC leadership was impatient and emotional, bent on revenge, now, rather than waiting a few months to vote Mbeki out. It showed great emotional immaturity as a government, a need for revenge, and a lack of integrity. And a disdain for playing by the gentlemanly rules up held by both presidents Mandela and Mbeki.

The ANC lost ground in the 2009 elections and is losing more and more favour from both left and right leaning people as I type.

I've been aware for the last five years that the ANC's hold on the masses is tenuous - they are impatient with the empty promises and enrichment of the select few. The responses I've observed at conferences was to placate them and ask them to wait until 2010...

More recent observations are:

Malema, whether of his own conniving or someone else's bidding, is playing a very astute game. Come July when the world cup has come and gone and almost no South Africans are even slightly better off, I'm of the opinion that the only person who will be able to control the masses (ironically, given his business interests and lifestyle) is Malema.

I see a huge jump to the left coming almost as soon as the last soccer fan has departed.

I've also been curious how Zuma has managed to sit so daintily and unchallenged on the fence offering contradictory placatory statements to business and to the masses. It's a simple matter of accepted double-speak. Mines will be nationalised, and I dare say land too - and the country will be swinging to the left as soon as possible. There's just no need to tell anyone about it, as the masses will be happy anyway, and it's more profitable and productive to catch those who would be financially affected unawares.

Looking at it logically, the left swing will need to be in place to ensure enough support so that the ANC stays in power and those who have become accustomed to a new lifestyle can continue to enjoy it. It's as much about looking after their own skin as it is about giving benefits to the poorer masses.

The country is facing critical skills shortages in government, which has both created and compounded the electricity crisis and a very imminent water crisis. The water crisis will be made worse by global warming.

Companies are already be skittish about investing in SA and looking elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa and will be totally put off by any moves at nationalisation, which clearly appear to be on the cards.

This is denied with blanket "nationalization is not ANC policy", but they're allowing contentious "debate" while openly planning x,y z (which actually amounts to nationalization). Simply put: it is double-speak. The ANC is not being honest about its intentions.

Farm land is under discussion for nationalization... There's even talk of nationalizing game farms to ensure food security ... and with it we enter the Zim scenario and will soon add tenuous food supply to the depressing list of decaying infrastructure, insufficient power and water... and the lack skilled manpower or tacticians to deal with the problem.

My take is that the rainbow is very close to vaporising. I think the moisture in the air that refracts light to form a rainbow is about to evaporate - and there won't be a pot of gold in its place either... well - except for the politicians who escape scrutiny while holding shares in companies that benefit from these policies.