The Malema dilemma (or da Malema dilema)

More than a year has passed since the ANC Youth League's somewhat notorious motor-mouth leader, Julius Malema, first publicly suggested that mines were a good target for nationalisation.

While trying to placate investors by saying that this was not official ANC policy, the ANC none-the-less defended his right to openly debate such proposals...

© 2011 Zapiro (All rights reserved)
Printed with permission from www.zapiro.com
For more Zapiro cartoons visit www.zapiro.com

Now, like Po the cuddly Kung Fu panda, Malema is back and drawing an even bigger following. And in much the same way as we overlook Po's personal foibles, the hungry South African youth (without much prospect of a good job or stable future) overlook the fact that Malema is living in cuddly panda-belly inducing luxury, while making revolutionary promises to fuel frustrations and his rise to power.

He's upped the stakes with his second term Youth League election promises adding banks to the  nationalisation list, along with the mines, as well as Mugabe-style land grabs to speed up land redistribution and transformation... and is back with twice the awfulness for any level-headed South African - but twice the awesomeness in the eyes of his followers.

The dilemma we face with Malema is: should we take him seriously (his suggestions would spell economic ruin for the country, which makes them laughable - yet his revolutionary call has mass appeal with the apparently disadvantaged youth) or do his impassioned and racially divisive speeches fall into the realm of political Kung Fu posturing and make believe?

I'd like to believe the latter, but would feel more inclined to switch of my alarm if the (weak seeming) ANC leadership stepped up and DID something. JuJu has flexed his political muscle again... and it feels like we're all watching in the movie seats like passive spectators, not daring to believe this is real.

Southern Scenic Route

Southern Scenic Route, a set on Flickr.

Some shots of the spectacular Southern Scenic Route in South Island, NZ

The reason why the ANC has not chastised Malema

I've been slow in figuring this one out - but the reason why the ANC has not censored Malema is actually blatantly obvious...

I started by wondering whether the ANC was hoping that Malema might hang himself if given sufficient rope, but realised the situation was trickier than that.

The ANC and its alliance are divided on the issue of nationalisation. They can not afford to come out either in support of, or against, Malema. To do so would not only break up the fragile alliance with the SACP and COSATU and also divide the ANC along these ideological lines. Something the ANC can ill afford.

Malema has seen the gap and is very cleverly exploiting it...

The net result? South Africa is left with a clear leadership vacuum and the nation is in a quandary about its future. The bald truth is that the ruling party is too divided and scared to act - as any action would result in the ANC imploding.

Quo vadis... and... So-whe-tu?

I'm not really one to pontificate about the machinations of politicians, online or elsewhere, but the lack of mature leadership and clear thinking is so blatant that I find myself unable to keep my opinions to myself.

How can anyone, after encouraging people to sing a song with the lyrics "kill the boer" or "kill the farmer" stand back and say... I'm in Zimbabwe. I had nothing to do with the incident? Could someone have the moral fibre to stand up and take responsibility for their actions - please?

SOME people might see the song as a rallying anti-apartheid cry with a history, and not see it as condoning violence against white people... but surely anyone can see that some are going to take the rallying cry literally? Just as violence on TV breeds an acceptance of violence in life, chanting slogans like this breeds an attitude that opposes everything enshrined in the constitution.

I'm also gob-smacked at the lack of intelligence I'm credited for... Extreme right-winger Eugene Terreblanche is violently murdered in bed. Two people are arrested, admitting to having killed the controversial figure over a wage dispute. A wage dispute? Come on? I know we have a high rate of crime and violence - but since when is a wage dispute negotiated with pipes and pangas? Clearly the motive was murder, not clarifying a wage issue...

While this might not be a politically motivated murder, this does not mean that the attitude encouraged by the song does not play a big part in killing being seen as a solution to problems.

But - of graver concern to me is this:

Malema is openly stating that he will disregard the legal ruling preventing him from singing the song. This sends a message potentially more damaging than singing "kill the boer". If there is no regard for the rule of law or judicial process when it does not rule in your favour... then we are indeed on the top of a very slippery slope to mayhem.

I'm also astounded to learn that Malema is on a fact finding mission to Zimbabwe to study their highly controversial redistribution process. My first question is: IF nationalisation is not ANC policy in the medium to long term, why is Malema investing so much effort in this. This has gone way beyond healthy "debate".

My second question is: Didn't the land redistribution policy in Zimbabwe turn a thriving agruclutral-based economy on its head and result in more poverty and hardship for most people (except ZANU-PF cronies)? Hasn't it just recovered from a bout of hyperinflation that had the economy spiraling totally out of control? I sure hope Malema is in Zimbabwe learning how NOT to go about redistribution and not taking tips on how it should be done!

My observation is this: The ANC in as hell-bent on supporting their right to sing their rallying war song as they were on electing Zuma as president - they want their will to prevail, irrespective of how bad it might look to other people.

But, the lack of censorship of Malema is the biggest concern... and while the ANC still tries to sit undaintily on the fence between the left/ride commercial divide, it is clear that policy IS inevitably going to move to the left despite assurances to the contrary. They have lost control and are simply not going to be left with any other option.

I'm still not sure what they hope to gain out of this - either they are total fools (which I do not believe) or there is a clear policy to create fear and stoke racial tension... but I fail to see who might benefit from it? Perhaps if they can intimidate farmers into leaving out of fear it solves the willing buyer, willing seller problem - but I suspect the plan is bigger than that.

But either way, we are shifting away from a democracy to a place where might is right.

Is this how rainbows evaporate?

I follow the news in sub-Saharan Africa more closely than most - this is what I am paid to do as an analyst for the region. As a South African I am worried about recent developments in the country, and I know I am not alone.

My recent concern stems from the fact that the ANC Youth League has been allowed to make very controversial statements and threats which are ignored under the banner of it being their democratic right to "debate" these issues. I'm not sure how you debate a call from the nationalization of mines or threatening media freedom... but the league appears to be playing a very smart game ahead of the ANC (or perhaps on behalf of the ANC) in a bid to gain the unquestioning populist support from the poorer masses.

Nobody likes to be a doomsayer, or a pessimist - but my hope and optimism is fading as I see the shimmer in the rainbow start to do the same.

This is my personal take on things:

The ANC has always had the problem of being united AGAINST apartheid - with that unity of vision crumbling with the dissolution of the oppression. They are not united in their democratic (if it is a democratic) vision.

I was content in SA until the ANC ousted Mbeki. He wasn't a great president, but it showed that the ANC leadership was impatient and emotional, bent on revenge, now, rather than waiting a few months to vote Mbeki out. It showed great emotional immaturity as a government, a need for revenge, and a lack of integrity. And a disdain for playing by the gentlemanly rules up held by both presidents Mandela and Mbeki.

The ANC lost ground in the 2009 elections and is losing more and more favour from both left and right leaning people as I type.

I've been aware for the last five years that the ANC's hold on the masses is tenuous - they are impatient with the empty promises and enrichment of the select few. The responses I've observed at conferences was to placate them and ask them to wait until 2010...

More recent observations are:

Malema, whether of his own conniving or someone else's bidding, is playing a very astute game. Come July when the world cup has come and gone and almost no South Africans are even slightly better off, I'm of the opinion that the only person who will be able to control the masses (ironically, given his business interests and lifestyle) is Malema.

I see a huge jump to the left coming almost as soon as the last soccer fan has departed.

I've also been curious how Zuma has managed to sit so daintily and unchallenged on the fence offering contradictory placatory statements to business and to the masses. It's a simple matter of accepted double-speak. Mines will be nationalised, and I dare say land too - and the country will be swinging to the left as soon as possible. There's just no need to tell anyone about it, as the masses will be happy anyway, and it's more profitable and productive to catch those who would be financially affected unawares.

Looking at it logically, the left swing will need to be in place to ensure enough support so that the ANC stays in power and those who have become accustomed to a new lifestyle can continue to enjoy it. It's as much about looking after their own skin as it is about giving benefits to the poorer masses.

The country is facing critical skills shortages in government, which has both created and compounded the electricity crisis and a very imminent water crisis. The water crisis will be made worse by global warming.

Companies are already be skittish about investing in SA and looking elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa and will be totally put off by any moves at nationalisation, which clearly appear to be on the cards.

This is denied with blanket "nationalization is not ANC policy", but they're allowing contentious "debate" while openly planning x,y z (which actually amounts to nationalization). Simply put: it is double-speak. The ANC is not being honest about its intentions.

Farm land is under discussion for nationalization... There's even talk of nationalizing game farms to ensure food security ... and with it we enter the Zim scenario and will soon add tenuous food supply to the depressing list of decaying infrastructure, insufficient power and water... and the lack skilled manpower or tacticians to deal with the problem.

My take is that the rainbow is very close to vaporising. I think the moisture in the air that refracts light to form a rainbow is about to evaporate - and there won't be a pot of gold in its place either... well - except for the politicians who escape scrutiny while holding shares in companies that benefit from these policies.

So - it happened four weeks ago...

It was four weeks ago that I broke my ankle on the Choi Shi Michi in Japan. It feels both yesterday and a lifetime away...

Part of me is still in mourning over the trip lost - the imagined care free soul, feeling a good 2kgs lighter on lots of exercise, rather than feeling 2kgs heavier on a forced sedentary stint. The other part is sitting it out in a resigned but reluctant patience that knows I should be looking inward but prefers to be distracted.

My leg has been in fibre glass cast for three weeks and two days, just over half the prescribed six weeks... and I've moved from fighting the concept of a cast to something I can only described and no-other-option resignation.

I find it hard to believe that the best possible holistic treatment for a broken limb is to immobilise it in a cast which hampers circulation, forces a stocking tight against your leg and worst of all prevents access for a gentle massage and loving touch.

The doctors are not concerned about HEALING. Their concern is the least fuss method (for them) to ensure that the limb remains immobile and non-weight bearing. The patient must just learn to shut off the discomfort and the feeling they the injured part of their body is beyond their control and concern.

Personal note to doctors: this is an area that could earn you a lot of money if you came up with a workable solution. For me a bound on splint that allowed me to massage the leg would have been better - and... some patients are capable of being responsible patients, and capable of taking their own decisions regarding their well being.

But... I've moved on from fretting over the issue to mindless resignation as I wait out my remaining two weeks, five days of jail sentence for my limb.

After arguing about what we remembered of the docs instructions, Bob has moved from grousing at me for putting my foot lightly on the ground, to grousing when it is not resting lighting on the ground. The petulant child in me, close to the fore under what has been patience-trying circumstances, screams I told you so at him... but four weeks of not using something is a long enough to entrench new habits.

It is now, as hard to use the foot and get it accustomed to a light weight on the ball of the foot (as per docs instructions) as it was to remember not to use it initially.

Ever since the attempted manipulation of the leg after one week in a cast the ankle area has had strange sensations... exacerbated by gently resting the foot on the floor. They have eased, changed, and are now felt less within the ankle and more on the side of the fibular... but I find it extremely disconcerting - a feeling that is heightened by not being able to see or rub the leg.

Of course, I'm also starting to realise that the when the cast comes off at the end of six weeks, it is not the end of the journey, but rather only the beginning. The start of learning to use the foot and leg again, the start of building up strength, muscle-tone, and teaching it to listen to mental instructions. The start of mobility, of getting fit again, of finding physical balance.

It certainly will be novel to stand on my own two feet again. I'm definitely looking forward to the freedom of walking back and forth with ease and not needing to plan a task to the nth degree so that I take everything I need with me on the first trip, because a second trip (down the stairs, across the lawn, along the plank the covers the stone-filled gutter, along the verandah, dodging the tools in the passage to the kitchen or bathroom) is just to tiring to contemplate.

My shoulders do not like the crutches - they aggravate old shoulder injuries... but on the plus side my arms and shoulders are feeling stronger, and right leg one-legged squats are a breeze.

In a way I'm sort of looking forward to facing my worst nightmare - the oscillating cast saw... and my imagination has replaced it with new worst nightmare - which is finding out that I should have followed my instinct with these strange sensations, and that I need an operation and another six weeks in a cast! It is not something I would like to even contemplate facing, and hopefully it is all just the fabrication of my cast-averse mental meanderings.

The plans of mice, men and me...

It is still hard to believe. In a blink of an eye, ten days after my departure from SA, I was back in my home country, nursing a fractured fibular, sprained ankle and giant size disappointment.

After long flights, braving typhoon weather and cancelled busses to get to the starting point - and setting out for an anticipated 80-day solo walking pilgrimage - within 30 minutes of walking and less than 10 minutes on the mountain trail... it was all over.

The ground was still wet from the typhoon rains. My right foot slipped, spraining slightly. I moved to save it - and the left ankle went, with me twisting and falling over, gently...

Shaken, I had to take my pack off in order to stand up. The ankle was sore, but slow movement was tolerable... I knew if I took off my boot to inspect the damage the injury would swell - and that would be the end of walking, so chose to keep walking in case it eased.

In hindsight it was stupid to keep walking. But setting out, alone, in a foreign country, was one of the hardest things I'd ever done - plus it had taken months of saving and preparation and planning - so letting go was literally a slow and painful process.

I was on the Choi Shi Michi on Koyasan, and it took between five to six minutes to cover the 108/109 meters between each stone marker (with my 20kg pack). I set out just after 9 - the injury took place between 9.30 and 9.45, but I kept going until 2.30, when I finally accepted this was the end of the road.

I had come alongside or crossed the tar road twice, but this was my first goal. The idea was to read this point and ideally camp and see how the leg was, or simply see how the leg was... but I'd known for a little while before I got there, that the leg was not going to carry me much further.

I walked into a Japanese tea room for help. Eventually a couple who could speak some English formulated a plan and took me back up the hill to the hospital on Koyasan. I was strapped into a half cast and told that I needed to see an orthopedic surgeon.

It was only once I was safely in my room at a temple lodging on Koyasan that I was finally able to get through to Bob (who had gone to Johannesburg to represent me for the Vodacom awards).

Bob got repatriation plans in motion, while I was taken down to Wakayama to the Red Cross Hospital and accommodated in a hotel nearby. The Japanese doctors eventually agreed that I was fit to fly as long as I had an injection the day of the flight to prevent blood clots... and I started my journey back home on an Emirates business class fight (nice).

I've now been back one week, and am starting to process the disappointment while simultaneously finding myself increasing curious as to the lesson / reason / greater scheme of things - wanting to know just why the universe appears to have had other plans for me.

Apart from the uncertainty and drama regarding whether I would be allowed to fly, and miscommunication between the Japan (giving permission) and SA (who did not know of my permission to fly so had not booked flights) there has also been some uncertainty as regards my treatment.

I was given the clear impression in Japan that I would need an operation, but in SA the trauma unit doctor was happy to align the bones while putting on a cast and then checking via X-ray that the alignment was OK. So second and third opinions have been sought.

I am due for an assessment tomorrow...

The leg is not sore, although a number of other areas ache as a result of poor posture to accommodate the need for elevating the foot and the lack of mobility and exercise is becoming increasingly annoying.

The expression of love, compassion and support that has flowed from people as a result had me wondering is his was not a way to bring some of the elements of the Shikoku experience (where people give gifts of money or food to pilgrims who they see as representing Kobo Daishi) home with me... although I expect there is more to it than that...

Looking forward - I'm still feeling a bit numb, but enjoying the feeling of looking out on a fairly blank canvas. I will be able to focus on the next steps once I now that the leg is encouragingly on the healing path. Then I can decide whether to pick up work or plan the next adventure.