Is this how rainbows evaporate?

I follow the news in sub-Saharan Africa more closely than most - this is what I am paid to do as an analyst for the region. As a South African I am worried about recent developments in the country, and I know I am not alone.

My recent concern stems from the fact that the ANC Youth League has been allowed to make very controversial statements and threats which are ignored under the banner of it being their democratic right to "debate" these issues. I'm not sure how you debate a call from the nationalization of mines or threatening media freedom... but the league appears to be playing a very smart game ahead of the ANC (or perhaps on behalf of the ANC) in a bid to gain the unquestioning populist support from the poorer masses.

Nobody likes to be a doomsayer, or a pessimist - but my hope and optimism is fading as I see the shimmer in the rainbow start to do the same.

This is my personal take on things:

The ANC has always had the problem of being united AGAINST apartheid - with that unity of vision crumbling with the dissolution of the oppression. They are not united in their democratic (if it is a democratic) vision.

I was content in SA until the ANC ousted Mbeki. He wasn't a great president, but it showed that the ANC leadership was impatient and emotional, bent on revenge, now, rather than waiting a few months to vote Mbeki out. It showed great emotional immaturity as a government, a need for revenge, and a lack of integrity. And a disdain for playing by the gentlemanly rules up held by both presidents Mandela and Mbeki.

The ANC lost ground in the 2009 elections and is losing more and more favour from both left and right leaning people as I type.

I've been aware for the last five years that the ANC's hold on the masses is tenuous - they are impatient with the empty promises and enrichment of the select few. The responses I've observed at conferences was to placate them and ask them to wait until 2010...

More recent observations are:

Malema, whether of his own conniving or someone else's bidding, is playing a very astute game. Come July when the world cup has come and gone and almost no South Africans are even slightly better off, I'm of the opinion that the only person who will be able to control the masses (ironically, given his business interests and lifestyle) is Malema.

I see a huge jump to the left coming almost as soon as the last soccer fan has departed.

I've also been curious how Zuma has managed to sit so daintily and unchallenged on the fence offering contradictory placatory statements to business and to the masses. It's a simple matter of accepted double-speak. Mines will be nationalised, and I dare say land too - and the country will be swinging to the left as soon as possible. There's just no need to tell anyone about it, as the masses will be happy anyway, and it's more profitable and productive to catch those who would be financially affected unawares.

Looking at it logically, the left swing will need to be in place to ensure enough support so that the ANC stays in power and those who have become accustomed to a new lifestyle can continue to enjoy it. It's as much about looking after their own skin as it is about giving benefits to the poorer masses.

The country is facing critical skills shortages in government, which has both created and compounded the electricity crisis and a very imminent water crisis. The water crisis will be made worse by global warming.

Companies are already be skittish about investing in SA and looking elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa and will be totally put off by any moves at nationalisation, which clearly appear to be on the cards.

This is denied with blanket "nationalization is not ANC policy", but they're allowing contentious "debate" while openly planning x,y z (which actually amounts to nationalization). Simply put: it is double-speak. The ANC is not being honest about its intentions.

Farm land is under discussion for nationalization... There's even talk of nationalizing game farms to ensure food security ... and with it we enter the Zim scenario and will soon add tenuous food supply to the depressing list of decaying infrastructure, insufficient power and water... and the lack skilled manpower or tacticians to deal with the problem.

My take is that the rainbow is very close to vaporising. I think the moisture in the air that refracts light to form a rainbow is about to evaporate - and there won't be a pot of gold in its place either... well - except for the politicians who escape scrutiny while holding shares in companies that benefit from these policies.